Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 May 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 May 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 May 2023	156	003
05 May 2023	156	001
06 May 2023	156	001

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with one M3.9-class flare. This long duration flare occurred in NOAA Active Region 3296 on May 04, peaking at 08:44 UTC. The NOAA Active Regions 3288 and 3293 continued to be active and produced several C-class flares. The flaring activity is expected to remain moderate with possible M-class flare and a small chance of X-class flare.

Few coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. A coronal dimming seems to be associated with the M3.9-class flare located in the North-East quadrant of the visible disc of the Sun seen from Earth. Further analysis and information will be provided when more recent data from the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph will come.

A small and narrow equatorial-north coronal hole (positive magnetic polarity) has reached the central meridian today, May 04. The high-speed stream coming from this coronal hole may enhance solar wind conditions near Earth in about 4 days from now.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at the background levels over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold due to the enhanced solar wind conditions and is expected to remain at that level over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of the fast solar wind streams associated to the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that reached the central meridian on March 02. The solar wind speed ranged between 500 km/s and 620 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values between 5.0 nT and 7.8 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -6.4.2 nT and 5.2 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain elevated for the next 1-2 days.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle in response to the solar wind enhancement associated to the equatorial coronal hole, and the extended periods of southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettle with possible short periods of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 135, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 03 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	120 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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