Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 May 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 May 11 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 May 2023	172	034
12 May 2023	170	029
13 May 2023	168	015

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flares of the period were an M2.2 flare, peaking at 14:21 UTC May 10, from NOAA AR 3296 and another M2.2 flare, peaking at 09:01 UTC May 11, associated with NOAA AR 3294. The second of which was also associated with a Type II radio emission. NOAA AR 3296 remained the most active region on the disk, but simplified slightly. NOAA AR 3294 C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3293 (which has now decayed into a plage region). NOAA AR 3297 also reduced in complexity. Two new small regions emerged in the eastern hemisphere both of which were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux displayed a gradually decreasing trend and is now below the 10pfu threshold since around 04:00 UTC May 11. It is expected that the proton flux will be below this threshold for the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to increase slightly but will likely remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected the ongoing ICME passage. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 690 km/s to 500 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field gradually decreased from 11 nT to 6nT. Bz had a minimum value of -4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced again from late on May 11, due to the predicted arrival of the shock from the partial halo CME from May 09, possibly combined with the influence form a small positive coronal hole which began to traverse the central meridian on May 08.

The geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions globally (NOAA KP = 5) and active conditions locally (K Bel = 4). Unsettled to active conditions are expected for the rest of May 11, with minor to moderate storm conditions possible from late on May 11 and on May 12, due to the expected arrival of the partial halo CME observed on May 09.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 159, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 10 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	165 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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