Viewing archive of Friday, 12 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/1336Z from Region 3296 (N15W76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 May, 14 May, 15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 12/0615Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 12/1645Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/1232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 592 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 May) and quiet levels on day three (15 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (13 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day two (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 149 Predicted 13 May-15 May 150/145/140 90 Day Mean 12 May 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 021/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 010/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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