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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
20/1235Z from Region 3311 (N18E47). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22
May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 607 km/s at 20/2018Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 20/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 20/0900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and
quiet to minor storm levels on day three (23 May). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22
May, 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 170 Predicted 21 May-23 May 168/160/155 90 Day Mean 20 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 024/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 010/012-011/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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