Viewing archive of Friday, 28 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
28/1558Z from Region 3376 (N23, L=228). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul,
31 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 28/0104Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/1438Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 28/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 753 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Jul, 31
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (30 Jul). Protons greater
than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Jul) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 90% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 168 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 165/162/158 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 008/008-011/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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