Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
03/1155Z from Region 3380 (S11W80). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (04 Aug) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 03/1509Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/1134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (04 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 163 Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 160/160/162 90 Day Mean 03 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 010/015-020/026-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.5 |