Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 August 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Aug 05 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Aug 2023	173	042
06 Aug 2023	174	013
07 Aug 2023	174	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with two M-class flares, produced by NOAA Active Regions (ARs) 3380 and 3386. The strongest reported flare was GOES M2.1 flare from NOAA AR 3380 which peaked at 09:36 UTC today. During the flare, the source region (AR 3380) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C1 to C9 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C9.7 flare was produced by NOAA AR 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA ARs 3386 and 3394. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Coronal mass ejections

Coronal mass ejection (CME) has been detedcted by Cactus tool at 7:12 UTC today. It is associated with a M1.6 flare from NOAA 3386 and the nearby filament eruption. It has a projected speed of about 1000 km/s and a projected width of 102 degree (as measured by Cactus tool). Further analysis is going-on to investigate the potential Earth-directed components.

Solar wind

The solar wind near Earth is strongly enhanced. While the solar wind speed regime remained mainly slowly, ranging from 350 km/s to 480 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) is fluctuating between -21 and 14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field is disturbed with values ranging from 6 nT 24 16 nT. All solar wind parameters showed perturbation around 2:00 UTC today, which indicates the arrival of CME that was observed on Aug 02. Fluctuations in solar wind parameters are expected to exist in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally unsettled to major storm conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 7-). It was locally quiet to minor storm conditions (K BEL 1 to 5). Global geomagnetic condition was at major storm conditions from 3:00 to 6:00 UTC today, due to the arrival of CME that was observed on Aug 02. The geomagnetic condition is expected to fluctuate between unsettled to moderate storm conditions in the coming 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux started to increase around 8:30 UTC today, after the arrival of CME which was observed on Aug 02. It has crossed the 10 pfu threshold level at 11:00 UTC today. The proton flux is expected to remain elevated in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, and it is expected to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 131, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	123
10cm solar flux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	135 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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