Viewing archive of Friday, 11 August 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Aug 11 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Aug 2023	156	007
12 Aug 2023	156	007
13 Aug 2023	156	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity has been quite over the past 24 hours with few C-class flares. The larger flare was a C8.3-class flare produced by NOAA AR 3395 (Catania sunspot group 14) and was peaking at 06:45 UTC on August 11. The other region that showed some C-class flaring activity was the NOAA AR 3398 (Catania sunspot group 16). The other regions did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain quite over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flare and a very small chance of M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No coronal mass ejection (CME) with an Earth- directed component was identified in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images over the past 24 hours.

Solar wind

The solar wind parameters were mostly close to nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field slightly increased around 16:00 UTC on August 10 reaching values around 9 nT and 10 nT. Few hours later, around 21:30 UTC the solar wind speed increase to about 550 km/s for about 2 hours before returning to slow wind speeds (ranging from 400 km/s to 490 km/s). This minor solar wind enhancement indicate the passage of a solar wind structure with an unclear source on the solar disc. The north-south component was fluctuating between -4.8 nT and 8.3 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain as such for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some short unsettled periods (NOAA Kp 1-3, K Belgium 1-3) over the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions with possible short unsettled periods are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has now decreased and returned to nominal values. New proton event cannot be excluded due to the flaring activity, however, it is not very likely.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the level of the 1000 pfu alert threshold for a short period, and is expected to remain below threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 113, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	111
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	113 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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