Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/0000Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 21/2311Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/0923Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 346 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 151 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 008/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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