Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 August 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Aug 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Aug 2023	140	007
28 Aug 2023	142	007
29 Aug 2023	144	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six active regions visible on the disk. NOAA AR 3415 has beta-delta magnetic field configuration, it is capable of producing M-class flares. The rest of the active regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. An M1.1 flare was observed peaking at 22:50 UTC on 26 August, from a region slightly behind the east limb. More M-class flares can be expected as this active region turns into view.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo CME, with angular width around 150 degrees erupted towards the east at 22:36 UTC on 26 August (as seen by LASCO-C2). It was related to the M1.1 flare above the east limb. The source region of the CME is slightly behind the east limb. Therefore it is not expected to affect the Earth. A wide CME (angular width around 90 degrees) erupted towards the west, first seen by LASCO-C2 at 13:25 UTC on 26 August. The source region of this CME, NOAA AR 3415, is located close to the west limb, only a shock at most could arrive to the Earth. Simultaneously, a faint CME can be observed erupting towards the south from NOAA AR 3413 (dimmings observed there). This CME has a possible Earth directed component, although it is faint, so if it arrives only a mild impact is expected. A possible arrival (although not very likely) of these two transients can be expected on August 29-30.

Solar wind

The solar wind arriving to the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nt. Over the last 24 hours, we observed a period of several hours with interplanetary magnetic field up to 8 nT, and Bz reaching - 7 nT. This could be related to the arrival of the CME from 22 August, expected yesterday, although the signatures are too weak to confirm this. Slow wind conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active globally (NOAA KP 2-4) and unsettled locally (K Bel 2-3). The active period may be a consequence of the arrival of the CME from 22 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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