Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 August 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Aug 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Aug 2023	143	006
31 Aug 2023	143	007
01 Sep 2023	143	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with few C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an C4.0 flare, peaking at 23:27 on Aug 29, associated with the NOAA AR 3417 (beta class). NOAA AR 3415 (beta-gamma class) is currently the most complex region on the disk but produced only B-class flare. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3413 (beta class) and by AR, that has recently rotated onto the visible side of the solar disk (N21E81). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:48 UTC on Aug 29. The CME is believed to originate from a region of coronal dimming located near N05W35. The CME is directed to the north-west and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible. Full analysis is ongoing and more details will be provided later. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 - 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a small chance of a weak enhancement on Aug 30 due to a possible arrival of the CME from Aug 26. On Sept 01 solar wind parameters might be slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a small chance of increasing to unsettled and active conditions on Aug 30, due to a possible arrival of the CME from Aug 26. On Sept 01 unsettled to active condition may be possible in response to the expected high-speed stream arrival associated with the coronal hole (positive polarity) that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 106, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	081
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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