Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/2328Z from Region 3413 (N09W48). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 434 km/s at 31/2042Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
31/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/1708Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (02 Sep) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 140 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 140/150/150 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 010/010-011/012-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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