Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 September 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Sep 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Sep 2023	130	029
04 Sep 2023	128	016
05 Sep 2023	128	018

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The two largest flares of the period were an M6.0 flare, peaking at 08:36 UTC on Sept 03 and a long duration M1.1 flare, peaking at 00:23 on Sept 03, associated with NOAA AR 3413. NOAA AR 3413, which has now rotated behind the west limb, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

In the past 24 hours, several coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. In particular, two CMEs, directed towards north-west were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at approximately 05:24 UTC and 09:12 on Sept 3rd, are likely related to the C5.9 and M6.0 flares from NOAA AR 3413. These CMEs are not expected to be Earth directed given the source location, however, further analysis is ongoing, and more details will be provided later. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 4 nT and 10 nT. The solar wind speed values decreased from 570 km/s to the values around 470 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -8 nT and 5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for the next days due to the ongoing HSS and likely CME influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 05 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly unsettled to minor storm level (NOAA-Kp=3-5, K-Bel=3-5) with a single moderate storm period registered globally (NOAA-Kp=6-) during the interval 00:00 -03:00 UTC on Sept 3rd. Predominantly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated minor or moderate storm periods.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton has returned to near the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	033
Estimated Ap	036
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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