Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 September 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0812Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 05/2057Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/1557Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/1756Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1869 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Sep 143
  Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep 144/142/142
  90 Day Mean        05 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  014/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Sep  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  014/018-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm45%30%20%

All times in UTC

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