Viewing archive of Friday, 8 September 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Sep 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Sep 2023	163	009
09 Sep 2023	165	009
10 Sep 2023	160	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

During last 24 hour solar flaring activity was at the C-class level with isolated M-class flare observed on September 07. The GOES M 2.1 flare which peaked at 19:09 UT originated from the Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3425). Presently available data do not show on disc signatures of the possibly associated CME, i.e., EIT wave and coronal dimming. Out of eight active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disc, one has beta-gamma configuration, and five active regions have beta configuration of the photospheric magnetic field which indicates the large probability for C-class flaring to continue in the coming hours. The M-class flares are also possible with about 50 percent probability.

Coronal mass ejections

The CME associated with the M 2.1 flare was rather narrow and slow and it is not expected to arrive to Earth. There were no other possibly Earth directed CMEs observed in the presently available data.

Solar wind

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind with velocity of about 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels and we do not expect significant change in the coming hours. As the Catania sunspot group 41 (NOAA AR 3421) has increased in the complexity of its photospheric magnetic field and it is approaching to the West solar limb, the strong flaring activity in the coming days could be associated with the particle event.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has continue to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We do not expect significant change in these parameters in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	148
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	141 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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