Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/2200Z from Region 3423 (N16W44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep,
16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 13/0358Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 12/2345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 12/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Sep, 15 Sep) and
quiet levels on day three (16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 143 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 145/145/148 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 017/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 012/012-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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