Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 September 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Sep 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Sep 2023	140	007
15 Sep 2023	140	013
16 Sep 2023	140	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M1.4 flare, occuring at 06:40 on Sept 14 near N20W40. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3423 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3429 (beta-gamma class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

A filament eruption occurred in the northwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 06:26 UTC on September 14th, associated to M1.4 flare. Further coronagraph data is awaited to judge any possible Earth-directed ejecta. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been slightly elevated with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching values up to 11 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 9 nT. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 360 km/s to 500 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to the high speed stream influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 14 – Sept 15 due to the predicted arrival of CME from Sept 11.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp=4) during the interval 00-03 UTC on Sept 14. Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Unsettled to active condition may be possible during the next 24 hours in response to the expected high-speed stream arrival and possible CME arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expecte to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 144, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	137
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	141 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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