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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1715Z from Region 3443 (N28W40). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 22/2042Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 22/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/2004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Sep, 24
Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Sep). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Sep,
24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 176 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 178/175/172 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 013/018-018/022-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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