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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1715Z from Region 3443 (N28W40). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 22/2042Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/2004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 176
  Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep 178/175/172
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  013/018-018/022-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm25%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm65%30%25%

All times in UTC

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