Viewing archive of Monday, 9 October 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Oct 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Oct 2023	157	006
10 Oct 2023	154	006
11 Oct 2023	151	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours, with the brightest flares being a C7 and a C6 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Delta, Catania group 87). Most of the flaring activity was produced by the same AR, while NOAA AR 3448 (Catania group 99) and NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) also contributed significantly. More C-class flaring activity is highly expected in the next 24 hours and there is a good chance of M-class flare(s), particularly from NOAA AR 3451.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A large equatorial corona hole with a negative magnetic polarity continues its crossing of the central meridian. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective at 11 Oct.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 290 km/h and 350 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was up to 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed away for the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with a single 3-hour period of unsettled conditions globally (NOAA Kp 1- to 3-), while locally there were consistently quiet (K BEL 0 to 2) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels both globally and locally for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, reached but did not exceed the 1000 pfu threshold for a few hours yesterday. For the next 24 hours it is expected to be above background but remain below the threshold.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 174, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	150 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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