Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 October 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Oct 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Oct 2023	158	009
13 Oct 2023	155	014
14 Oct 2023	151	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1 flare detected today 04:58 UTC from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 87). Also noticeable is a C9 flare produced by NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 4) today 03:47 UTC. NOAA AR 3451 & 3452 will turn away from view in the next 24 hours, so the chances of producing significant detectable activity are small. However, NOAA AR 3460 remains active and is expected to produce C-class flares; NOAA AR 3464 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) and NOAA AR 3465 (magnetic configuration Beta) have recently appeared from the east limb and they are also expected to produce C-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 270 km/h and 350 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was between 1 and 6 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause some disturbance over a few days.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were (very) quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1- to 1+ and K BEL 1-2) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to increase to unsettled or active levels in the next 24 hours as a result of the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive during the next 24 hours and cause the 2 MeV electron flux to increase but not exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold level. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase in the next 24 hours but remain at low levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page