Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
17/0505Z from Region 3463 (S17W44). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Oct,
19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 338 km/s at 16/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (19 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 137 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/008-014/018-015/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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