Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 October 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/0045Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 25/0042Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1502Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 291 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (26 Oct, 28 Oct) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 126 Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 005/005-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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