Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 October 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Oct 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2023	127	014
27 Oct 2023	129	015
28 Oct 2023	129	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. There are currently only two numbered active regions on the solar disk with sunspots remaining. The largest flare was an C3.0 flare, peaking at 22:44 on Oct 25, associated with NOAA AR 3471 (beta class). NOAA AR 3468 (alpha class) did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with a C-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed with the total interplanetary magnetic field rose to 13 nT at around 08:30 UTC on 26 Oct. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between -12 nT and 8 nT. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 310 km/s to 380 km/s. The magnetic field orientation was variable at the start of the period before switching to the predominantly positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) from 19:30 UTC on Oct 25. This might be associated with arrival of the compression region in front of the expected HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated in the next days due to HSS arrival associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, that transited the central meridian on Oct 23.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 1 to 3 and K-BEL: 1 to 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active and minor storm periods in response to the high-speed stream arrival from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 052, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	031 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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