Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/1613Z from Region 3479 (N23W58). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 07/2034Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 07/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 06/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1523 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 145 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 145/140/142 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 027/036 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 014/018-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.1 +7.7 |