Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
12/0441Z from Region 3484 (S15W60). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 12/0737Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 12/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
12/0717Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3687 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 137 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 012/015-008/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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