Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
16/0433Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 16/1308Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/2353Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/0603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 277 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet levels on
day two (18 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 118 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 118/120/122 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 008/008-005/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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