Viewing archive of Monday, 20 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0903Z from Region 3492 (N18E64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov,
23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 353 km/s at 20/0140Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
20/1002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
20/0645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 449 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22
Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 157 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 010/012-012/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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