Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 November 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 28/2331Z from Region 3499 (S17W59). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 29/0041Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Nov), unsettled to severe storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 171
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  020/030-037/054-018/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm25%35%25%
Major-severe storm05%40%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm45%60%20%

All times in UTC

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