Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Dec 2023	173	015
03 Dec 2023	168	021
04 Dec 2023	163	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours with an M1 flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65) detected yesterday at 21:20 UTC. Most of the frequent C-class flaring activity was emitted from NOAA AR 3500 and NOAA AR 3492 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 58). C-class flaring activity is highly expected in the next 24 hours. Isolated M-class flares are possible and there is a small chance of an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 22:12 UTC. It is likely to be geo-effective and arrive at the first half of 5 Dec. A partial halo CME that can also been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images as lunched yesterday 03:12 UTC is associated with a flare on the west solar limb and is not expected to be geo-effective.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are in the process of returning to a typical slow SW regime. The SW speed gradually dropped from 540 km/s to 450 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 27 nT during the height of the disturbance to 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) varied between -19 and 27 nT during the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival, but it has lately stabilised to around 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to be affected by another CME arrival in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions dropped from moderate storm conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 6) yesterday at 12:00-15:00 UTC to quiet conditions (NOAA Kp 2, K BEL 1) today at 09:00-12:00 UTC. They are expected to increase again to active or minor storm conditions in the next 24 hours as a result of the expected arrival of another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 111, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	156
10cm solar flux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	062
AK Wingst	034
Estimated Ap	042
Estimated international sunspot number	133 - Based on 06 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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