Viewing archive of Monday, 4 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 04 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Dec 2023	141	010
05 Dec 2023	138	019
06 Dec 2023	135	018

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low but frequently during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3511 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 79) produced the brightest flare, a C8 today at 01:26 UTC and has undergone through a very significant flux emergence during the last 24 hours. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours and if NOAA AR 3511 continues to increase, M-class flare(s) are likely to register.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from today 07:00 UTC. This is most likely a front-sided event and there is a good chance to become geo- effective. If so, it is expected to arrive at the first half of 7 Dec. A partial halo CME, also seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images, appeared yesterday at 10:36 UTC. This is estimated to be back-sided event and as such not geo- effective.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the arrival of the expected High Speed Stream (HSS) during the last 24 hours. The SW speed reached 580 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased from below 5 nT to 12 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -9 and 9 nT as a result of the HSS arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was almost exclusively directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remained strongly affected by the said HSS during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 3+ to 2 and K BEL 3 to 1) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to remain unsettled in the next 24 hours, possibly reaching active levels.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 112, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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