Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0644Z from Region 3513 (N19E67). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 05/1616Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 142 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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