Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 09 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Dec 2023	133	007
10 Dec 2023	133	007
11 Dec 2023	133	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over past 24 hours with two M-class flares and several C-class flares. The two M5.4 and M1.5 class flares were produced by the most complex region, NOAA 3511, with a beta-gamma magnetic class. The flares peak time were at 23:07 UTC on December 08, and at 09:55 UTC on December 09 respectively. This region also produced several C-class flares. The other region, NOAA 3510 and NOAA 35011 also produced several C-class flares. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours with some chances of M-class flare from NOAA 3511 and possibly also from NOAA 3513.

Coronal mass ejections

Several coronal mass ejections associated with filament eruptions were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe. However, those coronal mass ejections are expected to miss Earth. The large halo coronal mass ejection detected by the SIDC/CACTus tool in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images at 16:24 UTC on December 08 was determined to be back sided. Another halo coronal mass ejection associated to a large filament eruption was observed at 03:56 UTC on December 09. The analysis is ongoing, however, no Earth-directed component has been identified so far.

Coronal holes

The mid-latitude south coronal hole with a positive polarity has crossed the central median.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions near Earth show a slow solar wind regime. The SW speed ranged between 404 km/s and 460 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was below 5.0 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -3.7 nT and 4.4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative (directed towards the Sun) during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in a slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet with few short periods to unsettle conditions both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. We expect mainly quiet conditions in the next 24 hours in response to the slow solar wind conditions.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, went above the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the past fast solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain close to 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 144, based on 03 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	117 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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