Viewing archive of Monday, 11 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 11 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Dec 2023	128	007
12 Dec 2023	128	010
13 Dec 2023	128	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 flare, peaking at 22:43 on Dec 10, associated with the NOAA AR 3511. This region, that is rotating out of view over the west limb, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3508 (alpha class), NOAA AR 3513 (beta-gamma class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and increased chances for M-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes

A large equatorial positive polarity coronal hole began to transit the central meridian on Dec 11.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed varied between 370 km/h and 450 km/h. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 4 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 3 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a chance of a weak enhancement on Dec 11- 12 due to the arrival of a high- speed stream from the mid-latitude south coronal hole with a positive magnetic polarity that has crossed the central median on December 07.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a small chance of increasing to unsettled and active conditions on Dec 11 – Dec 12, due to a possible HSS influence.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was ranging around the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the past fast solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain close to 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low to moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	133 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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