Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Dec 2023	126	010
14 Dec 2023	124	013
15 Dec 2023	126	021

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C8.2 flare, peaking at 13:42 on Dec 12, associated with the NOAA AR 3514 (beta class). This region was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with NOAA AR 3513 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a chance for isolated M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 from 19:12 UTC on December 12 (detected also by CACTUS software). The CME is directed primarily to the South-East from Earth perspective. This is a back-sided eruption and is not expected to impact Earth. A faint partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 23:36 UTC on December 12, directed towards the North-West from Earth perspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely associated to C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3514 and a small coronal dimming. Due to the source location it may have an Earth directed component. Full analysis is still ongoing, and more details will be provided later.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 9 nT to 7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 360 and 400 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -8 nT and 7 nT. Similar conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, with a small chance of a week enhancement on December 14-15 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3, K-Bel=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp = 4) during the interval 12-18 UTC on Dec 12 and locally (K-Bel = 4) between 14-16 UTC on Dec 12. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of active conditions on Dec 14-15, due to a possible HSS influence.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, went above the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the past fast solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 116, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	114
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	113 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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