Viewing archive of Monday, 25 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
24/2340Z from Region 3529 (S21W25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Dec, 27 Dec,
28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 481 km/s at 25/1349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/1642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1722Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Dec) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 167 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/005-009/010-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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