Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 December 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Dec 26 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Dec 2023	164	005
27 Dec 2023	162	011
28 Dec 2023	162	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring. The strongest activity was an impulsive C4.5 flare with peak time 05:01 UTC on Dec 26th produced by the largest active region, NOAA AR 3529 (beta). Multiple low C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3528 (beta). Isolated low levels of activity were observed also from NOAA AR 3530 (beta) and NOAA AR 3521 (alpha). Two new active regions are now rotating from the south-east and north-east limb respectively. Both are currently quiet and inactive. NOAA AR 3533 (beta) and NOAA AR 3530 (beta) near the disc centre have remained quiet and have shown slight decay, together with NOAA AR 3525 (beta). The remaining two regions on the visible solar disc are simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with likely C-class flares and reduced chances for isolated more M-class flaring.

Coronal mass ejections

The two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) related to filament eruptions from Dec 24th carry a chance for a combined glancing blow arrival on Dec 27th and Dec 28th. Another faint partial halo CME is visible in the LASCO C2 coronagraph images starting around 08:48 UTC on Dec 25th. The CME could be related to a long-duration filament eruption observed earlier on Dec 25th to the north-east from NOAA AR 3533. An associated coronal dimming is also visible in the SDO/AIA images. Although this CME appears to carry an Earth-directed component, the eruption is rather faint and its estimated projected velocity is slower than the background slow solar wind speed. In view of the above properties no notable effect on Earth is expected. There have been multiple other filament eruptions, but no other Earth-directed CMEs are currently detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of mildly enhanced background slow solar wind. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 358 km/s to 519 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 8.7 nT with a minimum Bz of -6.3 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slow solar wind levels in the next 24 hours. Perturbed solar wind conditions are expected late on Dec 27th and Dec 28th with anticipated combined glancing blow ICME arrivals.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with possible isolated minor storm levels are expected for late Dec 27th - Dec 28th with anticipated combined glancing blow arrival from the two CMEs, which left the Sun on Dec 24th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	120 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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