Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 January 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jan 11 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jan 2024	184	006
12 Jan 2024	186	014
13 Jan 2024	188	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. Two M-flares were observed: the largest one was an M1.9-flare with peak time at 23:28 UTC on January 10, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta). The second was an M1.4-flare with peak time at 12:55 UTC on January 10 was observed from the south-east limb (around S20E88). Additionally, several C-flares were detected. There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3541 (beta-gamma) is currently the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Together with NOAA AR 3536 (beta), NOAA AR 3538, NOAA AR 3539 (beta), and NOAA AR 3546 (beta), it has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with an Earth-directed component were detected in the past 24 hours. A filament eruption took place around 05:30 UTC on January 11 in the north-east quadrant of the solar disk (around N30E55). Coronagraph data are awaited to determine any Earth-directed CME component associated with this eruption.

Solar wind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE increased from about 400 km/s to about 460 km/s, although we report gaps in the ACE data between 23:40 UTC on January 10 and 04:30 UTC on January 11, and between 06:49 UTC and 08:34 UTC on January 11. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 5 nT and 10 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. The phi-angle remained mainly in the positive sector (away from the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect similar slow solar wind conditions, with a chance of disturbed conditions due to the possible arrival of the coronal mass ejection first observed on January 06 around 15:12 UTC in SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to possible prologued negative Bz conditions in the solar wind. Due to the possible arrival of a coronal mass ejection from January 06, unsettled conditions with short periods of active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and continued to gently decline towards background levels. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days and reach the background level soon. Due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 184, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	172 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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