Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the
period was a C2.7 at 13/0421 UTC from a region just beyond the ENE limb.
Region 3541 (S22W33, Dao/beta-delta) exhibited some consolidation and
formed a weak delta configuration. The other 12 spotted regions only had
minor changes throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan,
16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 502 km/s at 13/0056Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Jan, 16
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | NA | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 185 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 185/190/190 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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