Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 January 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jan 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
24 Jan 2024183005
25 Jan 2024175014
26 Jan 2024170017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high with nine M-class flares registering over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 36) produced eight of those flares: five yesterday (an M4 at 16:40 UTC; M1 at 12:58, 14:59, 18:44, and 20:01 UTC) and three today (all M1 at 00:38, 01:40, and 05:43 UTC). NOAA AR 3559 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 43) produced an M1 flare yesterday at 13:08 UTC. For the next 24 hours NOAA AR 3561 is expected to produce more M-class flares, while NOAA AR 2559 is likely to reduce its flaring activity to C-class level. There is also a small change of an isolated X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images today 01:36 UTC. It is associated with an M2 flare that took place at solar S16W48 and has small chance of directly affecting Earth's environment. However, a glancing blow from this CME is to be expected in the first half of Jan 28.

Solar wind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by a glancing blow delivered by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) launched at 21 Jan 00:24 UTC, that arrived earlier than predicted. The SW speed increased to approximately 450 km/s and has remained at this level since. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has fluctuated between 2 and 12 nT, while its North-South component varied between -11 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun initially, but turned to the away from the Sun direction as a result of the glancing blow. The SW conditions are now back to the slow SW regime and they are expected to remain at this state for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1+ to 4-) and locally quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to drop to unsettled or quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, gradually dropped to background levels during the past 24 hours. It is likely that it will remain at these levels, however, there is still a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux180
AK Chambon La Forêt015
AK Wingst008
Estimated Ap007
Estimated international sunspot number145 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
23124012581303----M1.0--/----
23130313081313----M1.043/3559
23144514591505----M1.336/3561
23163616401647----M4.336/3561
23183518441849----M1.136/3561
23195720012005----M1.036/3561VI/2
24002100380043----M1.036/3561
24013101400153S20W48M2.6SF36/3561
24051805430600----M1.436/3561

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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