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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
21/2307Z from Region 3590 (N17E38). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 377 km/s at 21/2339Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0438Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 173 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 006/005-006/005-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 144.1 -22.3 |
| Last 30 days | 158 +10.7 |