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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
04/0316Z from Region 3602 (N19E29). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (05 Mar) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (06 Mar,
07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 04/0613Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 03/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
03/2206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Mar 140 Predicted 05 Mar-07 Mar 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 04 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar 020/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |