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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
07/0618Z from Region 3599 (S12W02). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 07/2043Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1828Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
07/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 137 Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 07 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 014/015-015/020-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |