Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 March 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Mar 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Mar 2024	128	016
15 Mar 2024	124	013
16 Mar 2024	120	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are seven active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 remains the most active in terms of flaring, it produced several C-class and one M1.0 flare peaking at 06:04 UT. This region is rotating out of view over the west limb, but can still produce significant flares. The remaining visible regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta). More C-class flares are expected, M-class flares are possible.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees was first seen by LASCO C2 at 08:57 on 13 March. There are no signatures of an eruption on the visible solar disk, so this CME is deemed backsided and will not affect the Earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth today, although the bulk of the high speed stream may have passed south of the Earth.

Solar wind

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 450 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. The arrival of a high speed stream may create disturbed conditions today. There are low chances of seeing a glancing blow from the 10 March CME.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 3). A glancing blow from the 10 March CME (with low probability) and a high speed stream could arrive today and cause up to minor storm levels.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 073, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	093
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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