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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
29/0230Z from Region 3615 (S13W81). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 28/2139Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Mar,
31 Mar, 01 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (30 Mar) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 05% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 167 Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 165/150/145 90 Day Mean 29 Mar 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 008/008-009/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |