Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1802Z from Region 3643 (S13E48). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 16/1546Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 16/1304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 16/1343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 199 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 200/200/180 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 023/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 012/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 60% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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