Issued: 2024 May 02 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
02 May 2024 | 129 | 010 |
03 May 2024 | 125 | 011 |
04 May 2024 | 121 | 014 |
Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.9-flare, with peak time 14:40 UTC on May 01 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and is rotating over the west limb. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the second largest and is responsible for most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 (beta- gamma) has rotated over the east limb and produced some minor C-class flaring. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 06:36 UTC on May 01, shows a possible glancing blow late on May 04.
A small positive polarity low-latitude coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth on May 04.
Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 13 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -12 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 324 to 407 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 129, based on 18 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 135 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 010 |
Estimated Ap | 010 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 105 - Based on 22 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01 | 1417 | 1432 | 1437 | S05W75 | M1.8 | SN | 74/3654 | III/1 | |
01 | 1437 | 1444 | 1448 | S08W75 | M1.9 | SN | 74/3654 | III/1 | |
01 | 2226 | 2231 | 2237 | N25E24 | M1.8 | SN | --/3663 | V/3III/2 | |
02 | 0207 | 0217 | 0224 | N25E23 | M1.0 | 1N | 84/3663 | VI/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
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