Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 May 2024	175	016
06 May 2024	180	013
07 May 2024	184	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels. The largest flare was a X1.3-flare, with peak time 06:01 UTC on May 05 associated with NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and the most magnetically complex region and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 (beta-gamma) is second largest and magnetically complex region, but was relatively inactive. NOAA AR 3667 (alfa) has rotated on disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible.

Coronal mass ejections

At the time of writing no LASCO C2 and C3 data seems to be available for May 04 and 05. An eruption is seen close to the west Limb of the Sun in SDO 304, 171 and 193 at 15:16 UT on May 04 but is mostly back sided, the corresponding Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) will likely not arrive at Earth. Further analysis of a CME, detected at 21:17 UTC on May 03 in LASCO C2 data, shows a possible glancing blow at Earth on May 08.

Solar wind

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed gently declined from around 365 km/s to around 310 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 6 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed late on May 05, due to two possible ICME arrivals and the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3) with some active periods locally (K_Bel 1-4). Active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, with periods of minor geomagnetic storms possible.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 161, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 04 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	164 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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