Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 16 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 May 2024	207	014
17 May 2024	202	008
18 May 2024	198	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high as a triple-peaked X2.9 flare was detected during the last 24 hours. It was emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3685 yesterday between 13:56 and 14:51 UTC. The first two peaks were at M2 and M3 levels, with the X2.9 peak registering at 14:38 UTC. The same AR produced the other significant event of the last 24 hours, an M1 today at 08:04 UTC. Since NOAA AR 3685 is located at the easter solar limb, its magnetic configuration and potential for flaring cannot be directly estimated. However, based on its current activity, M-class flares are expected from this AR in the next 24 hours, with a chance of an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

A Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO images as launched at 15 May 08:27 UTC is believed to be two separate CME originating from NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3670 and 3664. The first one is expected to arrive at Earth's environment on the second half on 17 May. The second is expected to deliver at most a glancing blow earlier the same day. A CME that registered in SOHO/LASCO images as emitted at 14 May 18:36 UTC is associated with the X8.7 flare of 14 May and is expected to deliver a glancing blow during the second half of 17 May. Due to the expected arrival of the CME of 15 May at approximately the same time, this glancing blow might not be apparent.

Solar wind

Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the arrival of the Corona Mass Ejection (CME) launched on 13 May. The SW speed increased from 400 km/s to 530 km/s today at 05:15 UTC as a result of the arrival. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was at the 3 nT level and has since increased to 17 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) now fluctuates between -13 and 14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun until the event and now varies between both directions (away and towards the Sun). The effects of the CME are expected to remain in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were affected by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) arrival of today 05:15 UTC. Globally the conditions increased from unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3+) to moderate storm (NOAA Kp 6, between 06:00-09:00 UTC) and minor storm (NOAA Kp 5-, between 09:00-12:00 UTC) levels. Locally they increased from unsettled (K BEL 2-3) to active (K BEL 4) between 06:00-12:00 UTC. Kp is expected to be at active to minor storm levels of the next 24 hours. Locally the conditions are expected to be at active to unsettled.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, remained above the 10 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours. It is expected remain at high levels, although it is very likely to drop below the alert level at some point in the next 24 hours. Additionally, there is a chance for another proton event from the newly- numbered NOAA Active Region 3685 in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, has now dropped to low levels during the last 24 hours, possibly as a result of the CME arrival of today 05:15 UTC. It is expected to remain at those levels for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours, but it is expected to decrease to low levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 206, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 15 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	195 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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