Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 25 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 May 2024	163	007
26 May 2024	165	007
27 May 2024	167	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. Solar activity has declined in the last 24 hours, since NOAA AR 3679 is rotating over the west limb. It still produced one M-class flare (the only one of the last 24 hours), M1.4 peaking at 20:25 UTC, and it may still produce significant flares as it rotates out of view. Old NOAA AR3663, which produced very high activity in the last rotation, is rotating back into view over the east limb. NOAA ARs 3685 and 3686 have potential for M-class flares For the next 24 hours M-class flares can still be expected.

Coronal mass ejections

A partial halo CME was observed leaving the Sun at 13:25 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, directed towards the east with an angular width of about 150 degrees and speed close to 600 km/s. This CME is backsided and will not affect the Earth. A second wide CME (angular width around 80 degrees) lifted of the NW limb at 10:48 UT (LASCO C2) on 24 May, this CME is not believed to affect the Earth either.

Solar wind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 360 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet both at planetary and local levels (Kp and K_Bel up to 2).Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 24 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	135
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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