Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 June 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jun 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jun 2024	175	008
12 Jun 2024	172	007
13 Jun 2024	169	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels. The strongest flares were two M-class flares associated with NOAA AR 3697 (previously beta-gamma-delta). The first was an M1.3 flare peaking at 13:29 UTC on June 10 and the second an M9.5 flare peaking at 18:40 UTC on June 10. There are currently eight active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3709 (beta-gamma) being the most complex one. NOAA AR 3697 has now rotated behind the west limb and continued to produce moderate levels of flaring activity. NOAA AR 3701 has rotated behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

Three partial halo coronal mass ejections (CME) have been observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 chronograph imagery over the last 24 hours. The first one was a partial halo CME detected starting at 11:00 UTC on June 10 in LASCO-C2 data. It is most likely related to two M-class flares from NOAA AR 3697 starting from 10:18 UTC, preceding the X1.5 flare with peak time 11:08 UTC. The CME source region is believed to be behind the west limb and no impact on Earth is expected. The second one was a partial halo CME detected starting at 18:36 UTC on June 10 in LASCO-C2 data. It is most likely associated with the M9.5 flare from NOAA AR 3697 with peak time 18:40 UTC on June 10. The CME source region is believed to be behind the west limb and no impact on Earth is expected. The third partial halo CME was first detected at 23:36 UTC on June 10 in LASCO-C2 data. The CME is directed primarily to the south-west and has an estimated velocity of about 1000 km/s. It is possibly associated with a prominence eruption in the south-west quadrant around 23:15 UTC on June 10. Due to the source location only a minor glancing blow at Earth can be possible. Further analysis to determine potential impact on Earth is ongoing.

Coronal holes

The east-west elongated, negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere has fully crossed the central meridian. No high- speed stream arriving at Earth is expected from this coronal hole.

Solar wind

In the last 24 hours, the Earth came under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) arrival associated with a CME that lifted off the Sun on June 08. A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 16:50 UTC on June 10. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 15 nT, the solar wind speed jumped from 345 km/s to 440 km/s and later increased up to 537 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock increased from 4 ppcc to 15 ppcc. Solar wind conditions are currently returning to the slow solar wind regime and are expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached globally and locally active levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL reaching 4+) as a result of a weak ICME arrival. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	140
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	121 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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